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This problem is about the PDC Company that is a government company. They are asked to develop and support the Oman Company. PDC is expected to maximize the financial return of the Oman Company. PDC gave two possible outcomes: first one is demand and second one is weak demand.
A decision tree is a type of flowchart that is used to visualize the decision making process through mapping the different course of action as well as their outcomes. Decision trees is usually three types
Expected monetary value is a balance of its probability and the impact over the range of the possibilities scenario. If there is a choice between two scenario this has decision is taken by the EMV that provide greater potential payoff
We have chosen the D3 scenario because it has given the best and highest EMV value as compared to alternative ones. It is given the highest profit of 14.2 million profit margin that is good to have
EVM helps in realistic project planning of the concern. It also helps in gaining the real time visualization of the data in the centralized manner. Also helps in measuring the budgets and accuracies during the life cycle of the project. It also helps in managing the risk of the concerns. It provides the transparency of the performance of the project, measuring the cost performance, physical process and also helps in identifying the potential issues.
Probability = P
Hard ware = H
Software = S
Other = O
Probability of hardware
P (H) = 0.1
P (F/H) = 0.9
Probability of software
P (F/S) =0.2
Probability of Other
P (O) =0.3
P (F/O) =0.5
P (B/F) = P(S) P (F/S)/P (H)*P (F/H) + P(S)*P (F/S) + P (O)*P (F/O) = 0.6 * 0.2/ 0.1*0.9 +0.6*0.2 +0.3*0.5= 0.12/0.36
Bayes theorem is mainly used for calculation of probability. This probability is conditional where it is difficult to decide anything. Where it is difficult to come to any conclusion there Bayes theorems are used. This theorem is used in machine learning also. Here the probability is 0.33.
Exposure of risk is the regularity of potential time ahead loss ensue from a particular event or activity. Basically risk exposure is used for any business frequently risking ranks according to their probability of happen multiplied by chance loss if they may do. By ranking the prospect of these possible losses, an organization or business can control the small losses and may be notable sufficient to authorize investment.
Some common risk are
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